Robert Wright
speaker
595 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Robert Wright’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So war means both sides lose their access to the high performance AI chips.
That's what we had as of a few years ago.
A kind of mutually assured destruction.
A reason neither country wants war.
Now we have created a situation where China is no longer getting the high-performance chips.
So, whatever uh disincentive existed for China to invade, that has definitely been lessened.
You know, and and I'm not I I want to distinguish this from the scenario where China just says, um, well, screw it, we're gonna blow up these factories.
You know, that could happen too.
But what I'm talking about is something I think more plausible where China, which obviously has this set of reasons, it wants to bring Taiwan uh back into its country, because it of course considers it a renegade province, and in fact it's not even recognized by others.
Us as a sovereign nation.
Um, so I'm talking about a subtler dynamic where China's just doing these calculations every year, and they're like, Well, the US is sending more weapons, it's not gonna get any easier, and by the way.
We care a lot less now whether this factory gets blown up and
Because the chip war has gotten us to accelerate the development of our indigenous chip making capacity.
Uh, we may do better uh pretty soon than the West does in terms of hanging on to like the next level of chips, like the of like smartphone chips.
So
This is so clear cut.
It's just game theoretical.
Like you can't argue with a game theory here.
And yet I have had uh people people do it on on my um podcast, but I finally found somebody who had actually written about it named Paul Triolo.
I'd I'd encourage you to have him on on the podcast.
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