Robin Hanson
speaker
101 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2026
last heard 3d ago
Robin Hanson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
They are a worker who has to s deposit so much for retirement every paycheck, or they're a retiree who needs to withdraw money every paycheck.
Either way, they have to make trades, but they don't have information.
These are the two kinds of traders in the standard simple model of financial markets.
So we call those noise traders.
If they are noise traders, what are the first ones?
You calling them signal traders?
I'll call them wolves and I'll call the other one sheep to give you a vivid picture here.
Okay, perfect.
The wolves have information and want to trade on it and the sheep don't.
Now, the wolves want to trade against sheep, not wolves.
If two wolves trade against each other, then they've got information that cancels and they are not going to profit from that.
But if a wolf trades against a sheep, then the wolf on average knows something, the sheep doesn't, and then they will profit on average from their trade.
So wherever the sheep accumulate in the world of markets, the wolves go there.
Well, that's why Google stock has more accurate prices than some penny stock, because there's a lot more sheep there, so there's a lot more wolves there.
Presidential election markets are more accurate than senatorial election markets because there's more sheep there, so there's more wolves attracted.
There's one last thing to finish the analysis here is just to say manipulators are people trying to affect the price without actually having information.
They are sheep.
For the purpose of this model, they don't actually know something, so a wolf is happy to trade against a manipulator.
In fact, the more manipulators are expected in the market, the more wolves show up to counter them and the more accurate the prices
Let's
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