Robin Hanson
speaker
101 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2026
last heard 3d ago
Robin Hanson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And I think that's the right way to see this.
We should neither make sure all secrets are always kept as some universal law, nor should we require all secrets to be revealed.
We should allow this combat or trade-off of organizations trying to keep their secrets and news and other information institutions trying to find things out
Calci just followed all the rules and applied
There was a place called the Hollywood Stock Exchange that had made markets on movies and they were actually really quite accurate and informative.
They were play money markets and they decided to go through all the legal hoops to get real money markets on movies.
A few months before they were going to go live, movie executives got wind of this and lobbied Congress to make it illegal.
And that was only the second kind of futures markets made illegal.
The previous one was onion futures in the 50s.
So Cauchy took that risk too, but they got lucky and they are legal.
There is a risk of a backlash.
We have to admit that here.
The prediction markets have risen very fast without much public warning or anticipation and there's a lot of people who don't like 'em, and so there's an attempt at a backlash and they may win.
Polymarket was going more the crypto route where they could more defy regulations.
I'm sure they claim they're following regulations, but the point is they could more defy them.
And if there's a backlash, Calci will suffer more from the backlash because they are more firmly under the thumb of the regulators.
Polymarket will survive a backlash more.
If there is not a successful backlash, clearly these markets will grow in size, they will get legal precedent, they will develop infrastructure, they will get customers familiar with them.
I would say all innovation is a combination of simple, elegant ideas with lots of messy details.
And the elegant ideas don't actually change the world until somebody explores the space of different details to figure out which details can work to make the ideas work.
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