Rohin Shah
speaker
1,071 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 2 Jun
Rohin Shah’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
But this sort of story really puts the primacy on ideas rather than anything else.
Those are the things that are freely copyable.
Those are the things that you have them once, and then they apply to all of your technology across everywhere that you're using it.
And so when I think about what's going to lead to the intelligence explosion, I think the increasing population or increasing labor that can have ideas is pretty crucial to it.
I think in contrast, a lot of the discussion today talks about superhuman coder, for example, where you get an AI system where you can say, please implement XYZ experiment for me, and it just goes ahead and implements that experiment incredibly well and much faster than humans could do it.
And the argument is like, well, once you can do that, the rate of AI progress increases a bunch and you start getting to the intelligence explosion quite quickly.
At least I think that's the argument.
It's always a little bit hard to interpret the wide community view, which has a lot of people with slightly different opinions.
And I don't super buy this view, mostly because...
The superhuman coder is not something that can have ideas across the spectrum, across everything that happens in ML R&D research, in ML R&D.
It has ideas within the realm of coding in particular, which is like one part of ML R&D, but definitely not even the majority of it, according to me.
And so I think it's better to think of this as more like inventing the microscope.
You've got a tool that enables your research to progress faster, but we do this all the time in all sorts of research areas for the last however many decades.
It has not led to hyperbolic growth.
The invention of tools is just a normal part of research progress and usually tends to lead to nice, stable, straight lines on graphs.
And so I generally don't think we should be predicting big changes from the invention of tools.
Another example I think is sometimes people will suggest that a trigger for the intelligence explosion is the point at which AI researchers can get are like say 10x more productive than they would have been if they had no access to AI systems at all or had access to AI systems from like 2020 or something like this.
And again, I think this is the sort of thing that probably has happened for something like chip development.
So Moore's law is a nice, clean, straight line for many decades.
But presumably, I assume at the beginning of that line, people were designing their circuits by hand on paper.
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