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Rory O'Driscoll

πŸ‘€ Speaker
14206 total appearances
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Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

There, I will make that step.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

There, I will make that step.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I disagree with Jason.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I disagree with Jason.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I think fundamental value here reasserts itself.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I think fundamental value here reasserts itself.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I mean, there's two reasons I say that.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

I mean, there's two reasons I say that.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

One is, again, I always go back to the base rate.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

One is, again, I always go back to the base rate.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPOs in general is, you know, you do see quite a lot dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPOs in general is, you know, you do see quite a lot dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPO is more than 10x forward sales, even more dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPO is more than 10x forward sales, even more dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPO is at 70 times forward sales.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

The base rate on IPO is at 70 times forward sales.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

There hasn't been any, but you've got to believe there's a dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

There hasn't been any, but you've got to believe there's a dip.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

So I think valuation reasserts itself over the medium term, and the probability of it being higher than the IPO price 12 months, in my gut, is lower, significantly lower.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR | Lovable Hits $500M ARR | Founders Revolt Against VCs: The Fundraising Horror Stories Going Viral

So I think valuation reasserts itself over the medium term, and the probability of it being higher than the IPO price 12 months, in my gut, is lower, significantly lower.