Roukaya Ibrahim
speaker
167 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2026
last heard 2 Aug
Roukaya Ibrahim’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But of course, if we do see, you know, this disruption continue for several more months, then that would be another another issue.
Longer term, because I think that the trends from this disruption, from this closure of the Strait of Hormuz are ultimately bearish for oil markets, as we discussed, both because of supply as well as demand.
You know, I think that, you know, in terms of its impact on inflation really limits the F side for inflation.
So it doesn't become it becomes less relevant for the longer term outlook for inflation.
Yeah, that's a great question.
And I think it's a misconception among market participants and investors that gold is a good inflation hedge.
When that is sort of discussed, often the 1970s period is what is referenced.
And at the time, that's true.
Gold was a good inflation hedge.
It rose in both real and nominal terms as inflation was increasing.
But the difference between
between today and back then is that today inflation expectations are well anchored.
And so whenever we see an increase in inflation on the back of something like an oil price shock, what that translates into is a repricing of Fed expectations in a more hawkish direction.
And that translates into an increase in real rates.
And ultimately, the
tightest relationship that we've seen year to date is between gold prices and real rates, whereby there's that inverse relationship.
Higher real rates are a headwind for gold prices.
And that's really what has dominated gold markets over the past few months.
As we've seen real rates increase, that has put downside pressure on gold prices.
And I would just add one thing is that
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