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Or maybe he and Greg Abel have already talked about the kind of risk book that they want over these next five to 10 years, and it reflects a discussion about what the incoming CEO wants. So there could be all kinds of reasons why. I don't really know. I just think that Apple, just back to Freeberg's core thesis, I agree with many of his general points.
Or maybe he and Greg Abel have already talked about the kind of risk book that they want over these next five to 10 years, and it reflects a discussion about what the incoming CEO wants. So there could be all kinds of reasons why. I don't really know. I just think that Apple, just back to Freeberg's core thesis, I agree with many of his general points.
I'm not sure that they affected the Berkshire strategy, but Apple is sort of a little bit wayward. It is a company with an effective and unregulated monopoly or duopoly that doesn't really know what to do. And I think that that's the biggest problem with that company. And that's independent of Buffett selling now or selling a year from now or having not sold a year before.
I'm not sure that they affected the Berkshire strategy, but Apple is sort of a little bit wayward. It is a company with an effective and unregulated monopoly or duopoly that doesn't really know what to do. And I think that that's the biggest problem with that company. And that's independent of Buffett selling now or selling a year from now or having not sold a year before.
By the way, you mentioned the Google thing, but this clearly was not part of his calculus. I think he just got very lucky. But if you're holding Apple today, I think you have to take the $20 billion that Google pays you every year, which comes in at 99% margin, and you should probably sensitize the value of Apple We're not having that 20 billion if this antitrust ruling against Google stands.
By the way, you mentioned the Google thing, but this clearly was not part of his calculus. I think he just got very lucky. But if you're holding Apple today, I think you have to take the $20 billion that Google pays you every year, which comes in at 99% margin, and you should probably sensitize the value of Apple We're not having that 20 billion if this antitrust ruling against Google stands.
That alone could be worth upwards of half a trillion to a trillion dollars, depending on what multiple you want to put on that 20.
That alone could be worth upwards of half a trillion to a trillion dollars, depending on what multiple you want to put on that 20.
I think that this Google thing is the most important thing that's happened in tech since the Microsoft DOJ decision in 2000. Internet Explorer, yeah. Yeah. Because if you go back to that consent decree in 2000, it essentially handcuffed this incredibly foreboding company. more than a decade while all kinds of innovations happened. So they missed out on two huge waves, right?
I think that this Google thing is the most important thing that's happened in tech since the Microsoft DOJ decision in 2000. Internet Explorer, yeah. Yeah. Because if you go back to that consent decree in 2000, it essentially handcuffed this incredibly foreboding company. more than a decade while all kinds of innovations happened. So they missed out on two huge waves, right?
Microsoft essentially missed out on social and then they missed out on mobile, largely as a result of that consent degree. And then they were able to catch up and embrace SaaS and the cloud. Amazing. Amazing. But there is this small
Microsoft essentially missed out on social and then they missed out on mobile, largely as a result of that consent degree. And then they were able to catch up and embrace SaaS and the cloud. Amazing. Amazing. But there is this small
O outcome here, which is essentially a consent decree where Google gets handcuffed for some number of years and it creates a couple of big waves of innovation of new companies that can succeed that may not have otherwise been able to succeed in the absence of such a consent decree.
O outcome here, which is essentially a consent decree where Google gets handcuffed for some number of years and it creates a couple of big waves of innovation of new companies that can succeed that may not have otherwise been able to succeed in the absence of such a consent decree.
And a good example of this would be the AI-powered search experiences that you're starting to see, whether it's from OpenAI or Perplexity or a few of these other folks. The big O outcome though is more if you go back to the Ma Bell kind of thing where the company gets broken up. I think that the odds of that are extremely unlikely. So I think the big O outcome
And a good example of this would be the AI-powered search experiences that you're starting to see, whether it's from OpenAI or Perplexity or a few of these other folks. The big O outcome though is more if you go back to the Ma Bell kind of thing where the company gets broken up. I think that the odds of that are extremely unlikely. So I think the big O outcome
is probably something that you can pretty safely take off the table. I think it's going to be a little low outcome. But the point is that there's a distribution here between these two things that this judge will be in control of. And I think that, again, I'm just guessing, I think both the Democrats and the Republicans will really support whatever happens here.
is probably something that you can pretty safely take off the table. I think it's going to be a little low outcome. But the point is that there's a distribution here between these two things that this judge will be in control of. And I think that, again, I'm just guessing, I think both the Democrats and the Republicans will really support whatever happens here.
And that's not necessarily because, I don't think that's necessarily because they have a bone to pick with Google. I think that they have bones to pick with other companies more than Google. But I think that it starts to set the tone for being able to check big tech in a very meaningful and productive way. And I think that that has important ramifications for Washington.
And that's not necessarily because, I don't think that's necessarily because they have a bone to pick with Google. I think that they have bones to pick with other companies more than Google. But I think that it starts to set the tone for being able to check big tech in a very meaningful and productive way. And I think that that has important ramifications for Washington.