Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · Oil climbs, diplomacy subsides · 22 Jul 2026 podcast

I think what's interesting is, you know, we had a period basically between October last year, March this year, where

that unemployment rate just traded, it just bounced between 4.1 and 4.3, very consistent.

And we've now in the last couple of months, and this will be, you know, we expect confirmed again today, we've shifted, you know, through the top of that range, as we've moved into the second quarter of this year, and unemployment rate sort of closer to four and a half, then

the low fours.

And so that actually leaves the unemployment rate likely just a touch higher than where the RBA thought it would be this quarter back in May.

So it's an interesting setup for us as we head into that August RBA meeting because unemployment rate will be a bit higher if our core inflation forecast is realised next week.

Core inflation will actually be a touch lower than where the RBA thought it would be back in May.

So the forecast misses

at all, like we're talking smalls and well within sort of error bands.

But it does just lend at the margin just a slightly more dovish lean in the sense that, you know, you're overshooting on your unemployment rate and undershooting a touch on your

inflation uh but again like we were saying in a world where energy prices are rising again and and central banks will probably start to worry more about cost pass through um i think like i said it's it's pretty marginal

Yeah, that's right.

I think, you know, the ECB has done what, you know, the RBA have done and the Fed has done in recent weeks and very much anchored to this whole idea of we're not giving forward guidance and we're going to be very data dependent.

And so they obviously hyped last month in June and no one really expects them to do very much this evening.

But there is still a sense that it's possible that they would go again in September.

And so I guess, you know, as we were talking about at the top of the call, you know, oil is up 30%, European natural gas prices are up, you know, over 40%.

And so I guess the market will be looking for some sense of how the ECB is

thinking about those dynamics because that's a very different starting point to where we were back in June when they last met.

But, you know, for now, market's very comfortable for nothing today.

But, you know, we're basically close to fully priced for a hike in September.

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