Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · Xiing is Believing · 17 May 2026 podcast

So voice-verified

it does in a way make sense um that longer end yields are selling off and maybe there's a bit of a message in this for central banks, which is that uh, you know, this is how we'll stop the bear steepening in bond markets, which is to to lift interest rates. voice-verified

Um and so I think one of the most interesting dynamics, I guess, towards the end of the week was the US market now starting to price in some chance of voice-verified

uh rate hikes from the Federal Reserve um in twenty voice-verified

Yeah, that's right. voice-verified

So it you know, this is why uh, you know, there are some some like percent will say it's temporary, right? voice-verified

Because yes, we know the oil uh the oil price will go up and and that'll push inflation up, but eventually the oil price will stop rising and hopefully even fall and and that'll all be unwound in measures of headline inflation. voice-verified

But I do think there is, you know, perhaps some growing anxiety that uh this will spill over into second round price impacts and that's voice-verified

certainly high on the list for the Reserve Bank here and you know we we are seeing that uh in our NAB business survey last week. voice-verified

We're hearing it from our business customers. voice-verified

So I think that dynamic is well and truly at play here in Australia and uh you know of some concern to the central bank here. voice-verified

maybe less so in in other jurisdictions, but you know, the US starting point for this was not inflation. voice-verified

inflation at target, it was inflation, you know, sort of on the core measures, sort of hanging around three percent, plus or minus. voice-verified

Um so voice-verified

There are clearly some Fed offici officials who are starting to get a bit more worried about this and, you know, perhaps leaning towards not seeing it as transitory as uh you know the US Treasury's secretary might hope. voice-verified

Yeah, that's right. voice-verified

So I think about fifteen, sixteen basis points of hikes priced in uh by the end of this year. voice-verified

So you know, the Fed's got a bit of a journey it's not much, but it's definitely a lot more than it you know, than it was even just a couple of months ago. voice-verified

Uh, the Fed's obviously got a bit of a journey to go on this because at the moment they still have an easing bias, uh, you know, in their official communication. voice-verified

So, you know, they they at least I think need to go to a neutral bias and then contemplate voice-verified

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