Sam Goldfarb
speaker
80 appearances
5 recordings
2 series
first heard Jan 2026
last heard 18 Aug
Sam Goldfarb’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 5 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
very important for setting mortgage rates.
So as yields go up, mortgage rates go up.
Mortgage rates had also fallen to multi-year low right before the war.
Now they're back up to around 6.3% on average.
So, yeah, I mean, people are basically worried that the Fed might not cut rates or even raise rates because energy prices have gone up.
And often the Fed will, quote, unquote, look through energy price swings when they're looking at inflation.
But there's always concerns that
energy prices are what people pay, and that if they're rising fast, it could feed into consumer expectations for inflation.
And if everybody, investors, businesses, consumers are feeling inflation, expecting it to be high in the future, that that actually can feed into actual inflation.
And so that's the dynamic that the Fed is concerned about.
But you also have these other measures of interest rate expectations, basically like interest rate futures.
And they also show that from before the war, people were expecting about two interest rate cuts this year.
Now they basically think that the Fed is likely to not raise rates at all and even have been pricing as high as 30 percent of a chance that the Fed would raise rates this year.
So far, signs that the war will continue have led to higher yields, sort of hopes that it'll end.
I've seen it called Hormuz hopes.
When there's Hormuz hopes, bonds have rallied.
But investors keep on telling me this sort of psychology could change, the analysis could change.
And even if the war continues, that people could start worrying more about its impact on economic growth, which actually could be good for bonds and cause them to rally.
And there are a lot of investors who are quite bullish on bonds right now and kind of expect them to rally eventually, whether the war goes on or not.
WSJ What’s News · Trump Administration Ends Its Immigration Surge in Minnesota · 12 Feb 2026
podcast
The higher quality, the investment-grade bonds, the yields that you get on them, the gap between those and the yields on ultra-safe U.S.
Showing 41–60 of 80 · page 3 of 4
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