Sam Stein

There's really not one, right?

Like the status quo just continues.

Is that like the most likely scenario?

Probably.

Here's the thing about a 30-day pause.

That is kind of a worst-case scenario.

I understand what Trump wants to be able to say, that it's over.

But the problem is that it's another month out of uncertainty.

Because what?

Iran's not going to dismantle their nuclear weapons.

They've been very clear on this.

And also, they've realized now that they can run the Strait of Hormuz, and we can't do anything about it.

And so what does a month get us other than...

just thinking about it in the political context of America, getting us closer to the midterms and still no resolution.

Well, and then you add on to that, so, you know, there's been reporting that Iran has been able to sort of reconstitute some of its missiles.

Obviously, they've shown that they can control the strait.

There's rumors that they're getting help from the Chinese and the Russians.

The longer you keep this going, the more emboldened they become.

The leverage points we had were this blockade, but

if that gets resolved then what are we doing here and i guess we've talked about this a lot but i guess it's just sort of worth stressing which is there's no way out for him that isn't embarrassing right like the most obvious way out is he cuts a deal that is just sort of a variation of what obama did in 2014 2015 probably worse yeah probably worse