Samir Kaji

speaker

769 appearances 5 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2025 last heard 28 Jul

Samir Kaji’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Venture Unlocked: The playbook for venture capital managers · Deep Tech Gold Rush: Smart Boom or Future Bust? · 4 Jun 2026 podcast

So if the capital markets do change, that does change capital formation for these companies.

But even right now,

there is such a concentration.

It feels like there's companies that are being king made, getting a lot of capital, and they all feel fairly consensus in terms of somebody leaves DeepMind, somebody leaves OpenAI, somebody leaves Anthrop, they're going to raise whatever.

Everyone else, or somebody leaves SpaceX, for example, they're going to be able to raise.

What are the trickle-down negative effects of the current concentration and consensus world we live in within venture?

So Neil, one question I would ask is, because you're on the ground investing at the early stages, and a lot of what you invest in, the old kind of adage in venture investing is when you invest in a company, you have to believe there's a potential for it to return the fund or more over a long period of time, which means you need to make some assessment of how big exits can be, especially when you see valuations rise at the entry point that you and Nate are getting into.

And Guy, I know you do co-investments, so you're coming in

many cases alongside some of these folks here.

And it's very hard to debate that the exits have gotten bigger.

If you look at the internet to mobile to now, they've increased five to 10X every single time in terms of the size of the IPO, the size of the average outlier exit.

But those are a small group of companies.

And we feel like right now, or I feel right now, we are in this extreme power law state.

So if you're an LP and you have no exposure

to OpenAI, Anthropic, Andrel, SpaceX, your returns are unlikely to look very good when you look at maybe $2 trillion of capital going back to LPs just from those three or four companies.

Is that the world we are going to live in, this extreme power law, that if you don't get it right, it is almost impossible at the entry points to be able to deliver that three to four X type of return at the fund level?

I tend to agree with that.

And I've seen these cycles kind of play out in the same way where you have a lot of euphoria, you have some breakouts.

The main risk is when people start to apply that logic to every company and say, well, now the exit is going to be 50 to 100 billion.

So I don't care what I pay.

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