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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

I mean, wow.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then people are complaining we should have marched on to Baghdad.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Well, okay, we did that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

That didn't work out so well.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

But then after you do one of these things and you think you're good to go, and in Japan's case, between the two, Sino-Japanese War and the Russo-Japanese War, it shifted the balance of civil and military power in Japan.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And people thought that it's the military officers that did the right thing and that the diplomats lost the peace.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

In the Russo-Japanese War, they're saying we didn't get a big indemnity, like as we did in the last war.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Well,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

You're getting the whole Russian railway system.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

That's an indemnity in kind, but that's not what they're seeing.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So it shifts the balance of power.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then in addition, this Meiji generation, the prime civil leader, Ito Hirabumi, is assassinated by a Korean revolutionary leader.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

because the Koreans don't much like Japanese and their empire.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

So he dies, oh gosh, it's a decade plus before Yamagata does.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And so that gives Yamagata and military friends another decade to insinuate the roots of military institutions and civil institutions are not being built.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

And then you can go, well,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Look at the Japanese.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

They're incompetent because their institution building was inadequate.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Well, in one generation, you can't do it all, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine: How Imperial Japan Defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China

Institutions take generations to really sink roots.