Sarah Paine

So they did as much as they could in a generation.

But their leadership was bereft compared to them.

This is why the Meiji generation is truly a brilliant set of leaders.

And what comes after their children and grandchildren are not.

Yeah, individuals, trends, the whole thing matters.

And there's no saying, I mean, maybe if he'd stuck around it, everything would have been the same.

Since you can't rerun the experiment, this is where, again, counterarguments are useful on so many human endeavors.

You just don't have complete data.

And when you're doing things in the here and now, maybe the data will come in a little later or it just doesn't exist.

And yet you've got to make decisions.

And so if you're not willing to change your mind, you're just going to double down on bad decisions.

And it's incredible the number of people who don't want to change their minds.

And that's why I made a big to-do about giving the argument-counterargument-rebuttal framework because I think it helps get you out of the rut so that you can change your mind.

Like, you're going to tell me that Kotkin's got this thing and I'm wrong.

I'm gay.

Maybe he's right.

I don't care who's right.

I care what's right.

You're missing the whole war.

Their war is with China.