Sarah Paine

What Gorbachev discovered when he tried to reform communism is that democracy and communism just don't mix.

If you give people elections, they're going to support multiple parties.

Also, when the communist track record becomes known of incompetent economic management,

summary executions, famines, just all the things that they've been up to.

It's very hard for them to remain in power.

Also, as Gorbachev discovered, democracy and empire don't mix.

When you give different minorities a choice of whether or occupy places, a choice to leave or stay, they bolt.

And there's a consensus among the Han, the preponderant ethnic group in China, that they want to maintain the empire.

So they don't care how many Tibetans immolate themselves, right?

That's no longer going on now because the mortar has descended into Tibet.

And they don't care how many Mongols complain about lost lands.

The Han want to keep it.

Also, for the generation that survived the Cultural Revolution, which would be Xi Jinping, he's precisely that age group, they do not ever want to go back to the chaos, the Luan of the Cultural Revolution.

It was horrendous.

So expect them to prioritize stability over liberty.

And this brings a third problem.

If democracy and communism don't mix, and democracy and empire don't mix, okay, in an internet, cell phone age when people are much more interconnected, how does a government maintain legitimacy to rule?

Because elections are an incredibly powerful way to give authority to a government.

And this is where nationalism comes in.

And the Chinese Communist Party and the Russians likewise are trying to use jingoistic nationalism to stoke up popular loyalties and also to deflect people from domestic problems to go, oh, look at the hated outsiders, right?