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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

Because both sides are taking incredible losses.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

Well, here's how it goes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

Once China intervenes in the Korean War, and once they halt various offensives to start peace talks, the Chinese do incredible tunnel work, and probably the North Koreans as well, and build an incredible tunnel system.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So it means the South Koreans and the UN forces are never gonna get anywhere near the Soviet border ever again.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And from that moment on, Stalin thinks he's got a low-risk, high-reward strategy where he's going to weaken the United States and delay the rise of China.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So what's not to love about fighting to the last Chinese in Korea?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

Stalin thinks this is great.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And it's going to retard Chinese development.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

It's also because China is so isolated.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

By this war, it has no international friends, but Russia.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

It's going to tie China to Russia ever more firmly and give Russia a breathing space to rebuild after World War II, while its Western enemies are wasting time in Korea.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

If you put it all together, Chinese Civil War, Korean War, of Russia's on-and-off aid, on-and-off-again aid to different sides in the Civil War, his double-dealing with Bundham, and what happened with Ataman Golia and the Manchurian industrial base, Stalin's advice to Mao to halt at the Yangtze, and then he's fighting to the last Chinese in Korea, this is all consistent with the Second Rule of Continental Empire, no great power neighbors.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

All right, once Stalin dies, finest day of his life, there's never as strong a leader in Russia again.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And by this time, Mao has figured out that the Russians don't want a strong China.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

He has to bide his time for a while, but he understands what is going on.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And Mao has a growing list of grapes.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

It's not only he didn't like Stalin's tributary treatment, but also Mao thinks, with his resume, that he should become...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

the leader of international communism and Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

It's like, no way.