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Sarah Paine

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
8864 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

They're busy rebuilding.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

But then when you get to the mid-70s, they're going into terminal decline.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So when Gorbachev comes to power in 1985, Soviet growth rates have been either 1% to 2% less than U.S.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

growth rates for the preceding decade.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And the compounding effects of that are pretty horrendous.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

In addition to other problems, Leonid Brezhnev was in power for 18 long years.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And not only did he collect cars, that was apparently the go-to gift for him, but in addition, he was collecting a bunch of non-performing pals across the Third World because this is manifesting Russian power, but it's expensive, and he doesn't have much of an economy to pay for it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And if you look at oil prices, they're very much associated with the decline of the Soviet Union, rise of Vladimir Putin.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And it's because in the Soviet era, government budgets relied as much as 55% on oil or energy revenues.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And so piggy banks are going to shrink if oil prices aren't doing very well.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And so Gorbachev repeatedly said, you know, we can't live this way anymore.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And so he wanted and he did initiate political and economic reforms to try to save communism, except he really ruined the sclerotic patient doing what he did.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And there are massive territorial implications for what he did.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And it's the loss of empire in Eastern Europe and also the loss of the ethnically based constituent republics of the Soviet Union.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So I'm going to show you Russia's territorial odyssey in maps.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

So this is 38.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

It is before the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Nazi-Soviet Pact, where they're dividing up Poland and parts of Eastern Europe, Nazis and Soviets, and what they want.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

This is before then.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

But by the time you get to the end of the war, Russia's got the Baltic states, it's got Kaliningrad, it's got all of Belarus, all of Ukraine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Sarah Paine โ€“ How Russia sabotaged China's rise

And then, of course, it gets Eastern Europe.