Scott Alexander (Astral Codex Ten)

Probably we'll get through this one too.

23.

Sentinel, a group with superforecasters monitoring world events, predicts a 39% chance that the Trump administration ignores at least one SCOTUS decision, conditional on there being one against them, and a 72% chance of a, quote, free and fair election in 2028, assuming no existential catastrophe before then.

I wonder what their 28% vision of a non-free and fair election looks like.

24.

Claim.

Trump administration may remove all NEPA regulations.

I think this would most likely be very good.

Government policies and removal of policies are so long-tailed that most things hardly matter.

Despite the war in Iraq and everything else, the Bush presidency was probably net good because it got us PEPFAR.

Part of my plan to resist despair is to hope that Trump is doing so many crazy things that he might hit on one or two extremely long-tailed good things like this one and make up lost ground.

25.

Indiegogo campaign for brighter, a very bright lamp.

Outdoors on a sunny day is 100,000 lux, a measure of brightness.

Indoors with an average lamp is only 50 lux.

Some people think bringing the indoor number closer to the outdoor number should help with mood and energy, and there are preliminary good results for seasonal depression.

Even clinical seasonal depression lamps fall far short of outdoor brightness.

The brighter lamp is 50,000 lumen.

Lumens are a different measure from lux, a lamp power rather than brightness.

But if you're 5 feet away from the light, then 50,000 lumen equals 3,000 lux, which is getting a lot better.