Scott Lincecum

And again, we have this wonderful free trade relationship with Canadians. So we stopped buying OPEC oil. We started buying Canadian heavy crude. Everybody ends up better off, or at least they did, right? So even in their actions, their formal actions, they understand that this is going to be painful. But now, of course, it's just the great covering and distraction.

And again, we have this wonderful free trade relationship with Canadians. So we stopped buying OPEC oil. We started buying Canadian heavy crude. Everybody ends up better off, or at least they did, right? So even in their actions, their formal actions, they understand that this is going to be painful. But now, of course, it's just the great covering and distraction.

Yeah, and it really reveals a fundamental flaw in a lot of kind of the protectionist mindset is that a lot of the imports from Canada and Mexico are complementary to US production. They do not push out US production. They actually support US production. So a huge chunk of what we import from Canada and Mexico are industrial inputs, so things that we put in cars or microwave ovens or whatever.

Yeah, and it really reveals a fundamental flaw in a lot of kind of the protectionist mindset is that a lot of the imports from Canada and Mexico are complementary to US production. They do not push out US production. They actually support US production. So a huge chunk of what we import from Canada and Mexico are industrial inputs, so things that we put in cars or microwave ovens or whatever.

Yeah, and it really reveals a fundamental flaw in a lot of kind of the protectionist mindset is that a lot of the imports from Canada and Mexico are complementary to US production. They do not push out US production. They actually support US production. So a huge chunk of what we import from Canada and Mexico are industrial inputs, so things that we put in cars or microwave ovens or whatever.

And that allows us to make more of those things. It allows us to create cheaper gasoline, right? So these are – complementary supply chains. They are not just simply zero-sum directly competitive. And the whole protectionist idea with trade deficits and imports bad, exports goods really fails when you understand these complementaries, right?

And that allows us to make more of those things. It allows us to create cheaper gasoline, right? So these are – complementary supply chains. They are not just simply zero-sum directly competitive. And the whole protectionist idea with trade deficits and imports bad, exports goods really fails when you understand these complementaries, right?

And that allows us to make more of those things. It allows us to create cheaper gasoline, right? So these are – complementary supply chains. They are not just simply zero-sum directly competitive. And the whole protectionist idea with trade deficits and imports bad, exports goods really fails when you understand these complementaries, right?

When you understand that production actually goes up in the United States as imports go up. So, it's a big problem for them. And for better or worse, assuming these tariffs actually happen, I think we're going to get a lot of real-world lessons in the next couple weeks of how these complementaries work in practice.

When you understand that production actually goes up in the United States as imports go up. So, it's a big problem for them. And for better or worse, assuming these tariffs actually happen, I think we're going to get a lot of real-world lessons in the next couple weeks of how these complementaries work in practice.

When you understand that production actually goes up in the United States as imports go up. So, it's a big problem for them. And for better or worse, assuming these tariffs actually happen, I think we're going to get a lot of real-world lessons in the next couple weeks of how these complementaries work in practice.

Yeah, so we talk about tariffs when we talk about legal incidents and economic incidents. Legal incidents is who pays at the border. Almost always, it's an American importer. There are a few little exceptions, but forget about those. So a good cross at the border, customs basically hands you a bill. Typically, you actually get the bill later, but you get the idea. And then you pay it.

Yeah, so we talk about tariffs when we talk about legal incidents and economic incidents. Legal incidents is who pays at the border. Almost always, it's an American importer. There are a few little exceptions, but forget about those. So a good cross at the border, customs basically hands you a bill. Typically, you actually get the bill later, but you get the idea. And then you pay it.

Yeah, so we talk about tariffs when we talk about legal incidents and economic incidents. Legal incidents is who pays at the border. Almost always, it's an American importer. There are a few little exceptions, but forget about those. So a good cross at the border, customs basically hands you a bill. Typically, you actually get the bill later, but you get the idea. And then you pay it.

The economic incidence is trickier, right? Because foreign producers can, in theory, lower their prices to offset the tariff, right? So if you used to be charging 100 and there's a 25% tariff, you start charging 80. 80 plus 20, you're back to 100. Everything's good, right? Another thing is there are currency movements. So the economic incidence is harder.

The economic incidence is trickier, right? Because foreign producers can, in theory, lower their prices to offset the tariff, right? So if you used to be charging 100 and there's a 25% tariff, you start charging 80. 80 plus 20, you're back to 100. Everything's good, right? Another thing is there are currency movements. So the economic incidence is harder.

The economic incidence is trickier, right? Because foreign producers can, in theory, lower their prices to offset the tariff, right? So if you used to be charging 100 and there's a 25% tariff, you start charging 80. 80 plus 20, you're back to 100. Everything's good, right? Another thing is there are currency movements. So the economic incidence is harder.

Generally, though, we have a ton of recent evidence from the Trump 1.0 tariffs. And we found that the economic incidence, the burden of these tariffs was primarily falling on domestic American companies and consumers.

Generally, though, we have a ton of recent evidence from the Trump 1.0 tariffs. And we found that the economic incidence, the burden of these tariffs was primarily falling on domestic American companies and consumers.

Generally, though, we have a ton of recent evidence from the Trump 1.0 tariffs. And we found that the economic incidence, the burden of these tariffs was primarily falling on domestic American companies and consumers.