Seth Paskin
speaker
1,271 appearances
11 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 21 Sep
Seth Paskin’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 11 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 4.
Appearances
Yeah, this is the kind of thing that you'll will get in hack more, but when is it that I feel like I'm confident enough?
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that I can make a conclusion and I say that this evidence works.
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Never.
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It seems to me that there's more to say about exactly what we mean by generating this confidence.
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And how the accumulation of positive correlation on our inferences make us more confident.
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And what does that and and how does what does that mean?
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We can say, well, we're closer to feeling certain, right?
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And so we can have that certainty, but this would go to why two different people for the same sequence of inferences would have different levels of certainty that they feel about it.
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And how is that working?
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And then I I think the full articulation of that is, you know, you can quantify it, you know, start really talking explicitly probabilistically and talking about the amount of certainty that you
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Yeah, yeah.
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This makes me think about we bring it up often that we should have an episode on conspiracy theory that Wes, you know, has done a lot more work on than
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that I think any of the rest of us have.
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But those are when we say something, well, you know, if you guys disagree, you just have to get together and kind of work it out about whi which one of the inferences that you guys disagree about and you can come to a conclusion where you agree.
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And to me,
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The kinds of things that you end up confronting in conspiracy theory as an example, but other kinds of things, you realize that there's something else going on.
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And and maybe that's something else is as simple as they don't ultimately agree in some critical inference or some set of conditional probabilities that are framing that inference.
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But that's what I mean by the level of certainty involved.
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Well.
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He isn't just saying that he's saying that our experience of willing willing is not its own thing, but he's saying it's the concentration of attention.
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Showing 901–920 of 1,271 · page 46 of 64
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