Shannon Zimmerman
speaker
587 appearances
8 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2009
last heard Nov 2009
Shannon Zimmerman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So now I'm going to start using the front of the envelope in an Excel spreadsheet to get serious about it.
It's a whole industry now.
There's no taping.
You buy special devices to cover those corners, buddy.
Jeremy Grantham is always well worth listening to, and he has a reputation for being a perma-bear, but really just likes to analyze what's analyzable and invest accordingly, and he is super cautious.
He's really good, too, at talking about the career risk that money managers run relative to the investment risk that investors run.
And so, you know, money managers don't want to be out of sync with their peers, and so they're just as likely to make all the same mistakes as to make the right moves.
So what Grantham does is to focus on fair value.
It looks at it at the aggregate level.
I have a bit of a beef with that aspect of his approach, but he's been right more often than not.
Is he listening to this podcast?
Yeah, so even optimists have to take a look at a rally that's seen the S&P up 40% since the March lows and compare that with economic reality earnings, which are looking better than you would have expected, but against drastically reduced expectations.
So that backdrop, I think, supports what Jeremy Grantham is arguing.
But when you look at aggregate earnings and they're off 5%, but revenue is down 10%, what does that say?
So on some level, they're doing it through cost-cutting.
You can't cost-cut forever.
Yeah, and so the important point, too, and I think this is sort of a thread of criticism that's running through this conversation, is that a focus on aggregate earnings or just the aggregate market in general can be somewhat useful.
But really, even if things in the aggregate appear overvalued, there are always opportunities if you're willing to look for them to do bottom-up analysis.
they they sort of pick away at at places where they think they can make some money and do a good job and sometimes they they managed to do both so it was and this is uh... the beginning of a series of surprises for set because i think it was a smart move for for microsoft a by market share in the space that they badly want to be in and i'm not surprised that yahoo uh... tanked because basically they're giving up on what their core business was and are going to be left with ad sales and so at that point what is uh... what does that mean for yahoo
I think if anybody can affect change in this space, it certainly is Microsoft.
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