Simeon Brown

We're already in stimulatory territory.

And so for the Reserve Bank, I think they will become nervous as you start to see further pricing pressures show through.

And that's effectively, I think, what ANZ's highlighted that, look, it is uncertain.

No one's got a great idea.

But if you sort of already are having that more intense pricing pressure to start with and you'll have further data on Friday that will probably suggest that even outside of the fuel increase in March, then the Reserve Bank is in this awful position.

And let's be clear, Mike, this sucks, right?

You've either got to lift interest rates, try and curb inflation that just is still too hot and intense.

But you're also risking clearly kneecapping not only an economic recovery, which just has disappeared, but sort of knocking the economy while it's down.

I mean, that is an awful set of circumstances to try and make a decision for.

Well, this is where I probably slightly disagree with ANZ's assessment.

They've sort of said, look, three will be enough because of how weak the economy will be elsewhere.

I'm not so sure.

And I only say that because you look at even the last 18 months, the economy has been weak.

It certainly hasn't been firing on all cylinders.

And we've still seen businesses on average that have been passing through price increases time and time again.

So I'm not sure 3% will be enough.

I hope it is, but I'm just not sure.

Oh, 100%.

But also, this is also a legacy, right, of effectively having too much monetary policy for such a long time that effectively that pricing discipline broke down.

And I think you've sort of hit the nail on the head.