Simon Cooper

And over 38 games in a league, the best team generally wins.

World Cup is just a random walk.

So most games in the knockout rounds are just by one goal or penalty shootouts.

So there's an enormous amount of fluke involved.

So I've learned from my folly of making predictions, e.g.

predicting that Brazil would win in 2014, never to make predictions.

So who is the strongest team?

Probably Spain.

They're the strongest in men's and women's football.

Amazing for a country of 46 million.

Does that mean they'll win?

No, most likely not.

Yeah, well, in our news economics, we say that for the first time since 1966, if England win, it would not be a surprise.

All the last 60 years, it would have been, oh, my God, England won.

That's insane.

But now they're consistently in FIFA's top five for nearly a decade now.

They've always been in the top five.

And then, yeah, you have a very good chance if fluke lands your way of winning it.

And you see England are now a competent passing team.

They're so good that they've left out Trent Alexander and Phil Foden and Cole Palmer.