Sir John Curtice
speaker
115 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 19 Jul
Sir John Curtice’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
But their support has gradually been falling and it's clearly fallen yet further in the wake of Nigel Farage's decision last
to precipitate the Clapton by-election reform are only now running at 24%.
Labour have already enjoyed a bit of a bounce in the wake of the Keir Starmer's decision to resign, although the polls have to some degree have said, oh, there has been a bounce and now it's gone and now they've begun to say, well, maybe it's come back again, but even so.
Labour just running at 21%.
That's just three points behind a now diminished reform, just one point ahead of the Conservatives.
And meanwhile, we've still got the Greens and reform running at 12%, 13%.
Our politics just now look even more fragmented.
than they did a few months ago.
A general election now would be very, very much a gamble for absolutely everybody and nobody could be sure how they would end up.
And that perhaps, again, partly explains at least the reticence of the Conservatives.
Reform, of course, we're just still hoping that there might be a general election before there's any risk that they actually fall behind Labour in the polls.
But even now, reform are not going to win an overall majority on the kind of polling numbers we've got at the moment.
Oh, well, the point about the first-past-the-post electoral system, there are two rules, basically.
The first is it doesn't matter how many votes you've got.
It's how many votes you've got relative to your opponents.
So when the opinion polls had reform running at a little below 30%, which has never been an election-winning number in the UK,
But that still was enough to put them 10 points ahead of everybody else.
The opinion polls were saying, well, actually, if an election now reform might win an overall majority, as I said, that prospect now seems to have gone to remote.
The second is that it all depends on geography.
Now, if you have a vote that's geographically evenly spread and you are coming second or third,
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