Sir Niall Ferguson

And here are the two uncertainties.

Number one, there is a way of getting the Chinese economy to grow in a more balanced way that doesn't require it to flood the world with cheap manufacturing exports.

Michael Pettis has been writing about it for as long as I can remember.

And it's about helping Chinese households to consume like they're in a normal society, rather than to have

their incomes effectively repressed.

And I just don't see it happening.

I just don't think Xi Jinping will ever fully believe that it's healthy to have a Chinese economy led by consumption.

The other problem, which is, I think, where you're probably going...

is that potentially there's a collision coming between China and the United States.

Because the CCP, under Xi Jinping's leadership, has made it really clear that the capstone achievement of his career is bringing Taiwan under the control of Beijing.

And if you watch what's going on in the waters off Taiwan, looking back over the last couple of years, with every passing month,

the PLA and the Navy do more and more aggressive things that worry the people running the Indo-Pacific Command for the United States.

So the most precarious issue, the most contentious flashpoint in the world is not Ukraine, nor is it Israel, it's Taiwan.

Because a Taiwan crisis would simultaneously be enormously destabilizing

to the security system of the Indo-Pacific, but it would also be destabilizing to the world economy because this would be a Cuban missile crisis, except that the island in question this time is off the coast of China, not the United States, and they export GPUs, not cigars.

Well, I think the problem is the way the question's framed, because I don't think that there's going to be an invasion, kind of D-Day Taiwan Strait edition.

I'm not even expecting a blockade.

But I think what happens is that at some point on Trump's watch,

The Chinese say, just to let you know, anything going in and out of Taiwanese ports has to clear PRC customs, and our Coast Guard will be going to collect those.

That's a big problem for the United States, because it's not clear that the world would perceive that as aggression by China.