Sir Richard Peto
speaker
8 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2014
last heard Jul 2014
Sir Richard Peto’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
If you take Britain as an example, sure, people are getting fatter here, and that's a bad thing.
But if you go back 30 years, then the chances that we'd die from heart attacks, stroke, you know, diseases like that in middle age was 16% at 1980 death rates, and it's 4% at 2010 death rates.
So the probability of dying from heart attacks or strokes, vascular disease, the sorts of things that get caused by being overweight, has gone down by a factor of 4%.
The probability of dying before you're 70, if you go back to 1970 in Mexico, it was a half and now it's a quarter.
If you're not in the middle of a war, if you're not in the middle of an HIV epidemic, if you're not drinking gallons of vodka, then overall death rates are going down and they're going down very fast.
The probability of dying before 50 worldwide now is half what it was 40 years ago.
In some countries like Iran, it's gone from 36% down to 6%, much better than half.
And some countries like the Congo, for example, where there's just chronic war, it hasn't changed very much.
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