Skanda Amarnath

I think he can't just snap his fingers.

He's got some bully pulpit power.

He's got some ability to set the agenda at a meeting.

Those are like for a really shrewd operator, there are ways to leverage that well.

But it's certainly not something so unitary.

You vote at a committee.

You vote among a set of people that's each got one person, one vote.

And there's a set of members.

Some of them are...

part of the board of governors, and some of them are regional Fed presidents.

And you already saw, what, four dissents at the last Fed meeting.

One of them was on the more dovish side, but three were on the hawkish side.

That's a lot of dissents.

And they're probably going to dissent again because they're going to say, ah, yeah, we should drop this easing bias, but we really need to be moving towards a tightening bias.

That'll be the next battle.

That'll be the next battle.

And so we're headed in that direction.

I would separate what I think the Fed should do from what the Fed will do.

I think they should steel themselves with the fact there are a lot of supply shocks in the economy.

And there are a lot of supply shocks that are really hard to look through.