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Skanda Amarnath

πŸ‘€ Speaker
348 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It may be just...

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

disproportionate in terms of distribution.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

If you think about the 90s comp or the late 90s comp,

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

labor market's definitely not as strong as it was then.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And so there's clearly like a sense of, if this labor market does not show any sort of real pickup over the next six months, we will be talking about sort of all the left tail stuff again.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It could be.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

The other side of it is inflation is a lot more of a problem this time than it was in 1999 or 2000.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And so we have inflation that's tied to tariffs, inflation that's tied to the AI boom itself.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

There's inflation that's tied to, obviously, the closure of straightforward moves.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So if you think about airfares are a lot higher now, and a big part of that is jet fuel.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

If you think about AI boom and its impact on, basically, if you want to go buy a laptop now, you can see the price, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's not what it used to be.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And there's all sorts of computer hardware, memory shortage having its impacts.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And so this is all a lot of sectoral stuff.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It stinks.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's kind of like the 2000s in a lot of ways, if you remember.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

There was a lot of random inflation that kind of creeped up around then.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So that's not great for the consumer, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

The consumer's got to pay the bill on that.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It means they're either enjoying not as much of a standard of living improvement or, in some cases, a standard of living reduction.