Skanda Amarnath

So that's the downside here.

So we have not as good on the labor market, harsher on the inflation side this time around relative to what was the 90s, which was kind of nirvana in terms of labor market being pretty strong, but inflation not really rearing its head.

A little bit is not enough, right?

Consumption is generally pretty smooth anyway.

So really when you think about, people say, oh, the US consumer is the economy, but investment's the business cycle.

investment is the thing that's volatile, that moves with the business cycle.

And right now it's risk on, right?

There's clearly a lot of capital commitments that are tied to this.

There's all sorts of planned spending, planned additions of energy, of data centers that haven't happened yet.

And as long as there's the belief that this is going to keep continuing, which is the case right now, that's going to happen.

And that's what's going to drive sort of where the market goes and market sentiment.

We don't think of tech as a cyclical sector.

We think of it as housing, manufacturing, maybe some segments of consumer spending.

But tech is the cyclical thing.

It is the thing that matters.

It's driving all of the vol in terms of GDP, in terms of why we're getting the outcomes we're getting in the stock market too.

We don't have a leading indicator for the tech outside of if you're really locked in on some particular names and maybe certain orders for this tech supply chain.

Maybe then you can

have a read into the leading indicators of this dynamic.

But it's really just about business fix investment that's all tied to AI.