Spencer Aguiar

I think in in-tournament matchups, if you look at what happens, that's the one spot where inside of the golf market, books are still slow to move in a lot of these spots where there's over-corrections and over-reactions that take place.

You know, there's people and this is kind of like the number one blueprint that I try to tell people that are building models or do things.

It matters what's going on, but we build a model from a lot.

It almost would be like in football, Simon, where if you build a model and you have it built out for this entire game and after one quarter, Patrick Mahomes, let's just say, plays poorly.

And now all of a sudden you...

create a whole new model, change everything that you know about this and reweigh it.

That's a little bit of what happens in golf.

And it happens really hardcore on the data building side, which is the incorrect thing to do.

So, you know, trust your pre-tournament research, whether you are building your own model or you're listening to advice from other people or whatever it is like trust

Trust some of your takes that you had early on.

Trust the numbers.

Do not overreact to one or two rounds.

It's such a small sample size.

But if you can do that and you can trust some of your priors, I think in tournament matchups are where the values still land.

So I did a show with Matt Mitchell in 2023, where I came on with Wyndham Clark in this triple digit zone for the U S open.

And Wyndham Clark very famously wanted LACC for that.

I don't know if I have as strong of a lean, this go around with it.

If there are some names I am looking for in that triple digit zone, if you want to throw a dart at the board and kind of hope for the best, I think Kurt Kitty almost ball striking, you can get him over a hundred to one.

He makes some sense.

Um, Maverick McNeely is another name that I've kind of been chasing this year.