Spencer Jakab

speaker

981 appearances 14 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2017 last heard Jun 2021

Spencer Jakab’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Why the Market Drop Has Yet to Improve Valuations · 6 Apr 2018 podcast

And the reason for that is pretty simple, is that it tends to get baked in. voice-verified

So, you know, you hear that refrain that earnings growth is fantastic. voice-verified

It really is. voice-verified

I mean, if it pans out the way voice-verified

that people have projected, especially because of tax cuts, it will be fantastic this year and pretty good next year as well. voice-verified

The economy is growing at what for this expansion counts as a pretty rapid clip, but it's baked in. voice-verified

Don't forget, we were at record stock prices just a couple of months ago. voice-verified

We're not that far off of it. voice-verified

So historically speaking, we're not at, but close to the top end of where we tend to be voice-verified

Not just in this cycle, but where we tend to be in all cycles in terms of long-term measures of value. voice-verified

And that is kind of predictive of how stocks are going to do. voice-verified

Yeah, and rainfall has nothing to do with stock. voice-verified

Rainfall, you just pick something random like who won the World Series or whatever. voice-verified

Those have nothing to do with stock returns, but you can find some random factors that have more to do with stock returns than earnings growth, which everyone assumes is a very important factor given how often it's mentioned by pundits on TV, for example. voice-verified

Yeah, it didn't work for me this year. voice-verified

Yeah, unfortunately, that's what it has to be. voice-verified

It doesn't mean we have to see a significant pullback. voice-verified

But what it does mean is that when you're saving, and there really are not very many other avenues for putting your money away, you still should be investing in the stock market. voice-verified

But you also should realize that over the next 10 to probably 20 years, based on where valuations are today, your returns are going to be at the very low end of the historical range. voice-verified

And you should plan accordingly. voice-verified

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