Spencer Jakab
speaker
981 appearances
14 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2017
last heard Jun 2021
Spencer Jakab’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
That's right, and that's an ominous one.
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So that's sort of the $64 trillion question, of course, where we are in the cycle.
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There have been bond market hiccups.
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There have been periods of rising rates, like you said, in 1994.
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1994, if this is 1994, then it'll be a so-so year, but it'll be followed by four or five fantastic years for stocks, and it'll be great for investors.
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If this is 2005, not so much.
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That was the peak of the housing bubble.
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And you had some serious dislocations in the bond market where GM and Ford were downgraded to junk and things that people just weren't counting on happening, odd things where bets that people were very confident of in financial markets didn't really pan out the way they did, kind of like you saw last month with the volatility products situation.
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where betting on volatility receding was a very, very profitable bet all throughout the cycle until it wasn't, until it blew some people up.
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Perhaps if you'd found the most pessimistic person on the street, but no one mainstream in 2005, 2006, 2007 foresaw the sort of cataclysm that would befall the markets in 08 and 09.
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Obviously, if you look at what strategists were forecasting, they had rose-colored glasses on.
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But even people, I think, who were more realistic, who aren't in the business of being cheerleaders, were being very, very cautious, but not as cautious as they should have been.
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So it was a real prelude to a horrible time.
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Not to say that we're going to face an 08 again, but if this is 2005, then investors should be concerned there are more dislocations ahead at the very least.
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Absolutely.
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So you have things that you have not seen in generations, which is a resurgence in protectionism.
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It might be an isolated incident, but it could be the beginning of a trade war.
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And that's clearly bad for global growth.
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I think the most important thing, just getting back to what we're talking about central banks, is that that stimulus has been a constant over the last nine years.
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The fact that it's being withdrawn, the fact that we see no intention, no signals from central banks to slow down the withdrawal of that stimulus, even though they are still quite accommodative.
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Showing 721–740 of 981 · page 37 of 50
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