Spencer Jakab

speaker

981 appearances 14 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2017 last heard Jun 2021

Spencer Jakab’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Prepared for a Rainy Day? U.S. Savings Rate Remarkably Low · 1 Nov 2017 podcast

But of course, the sort of, you know, just like the calm comes before the storm, the party comes before the punch bowl is taken away and everyone has a hangover. voice-verified

So, I'm not saying because, you know, no one can really know or predict what we're going to have. voice-verified

But the fact that people today feel very confident, and there are many measures of that in terms of how people are spending their money, says nothing about what's going to happen in six months or a year. voice-verified

What it says is what we're experiencing today and have experienced today. voice-verified

In the last six months or a year, which is a very tight labor market, stock market at a record, and general sense of optimism about the economy, that doesn't say anything. voice-verified

As a matter of fact, if anything, it's actually inversely correlated with how the stock market and the economy does. voice-verified

When people are very confident, they tend to have a comeuppance. voice-verified

Yeah. voice-verified

Well, it's really interesting. voice-verified

If you look at measures of confidence and you look at, let's say, voice-verified

not just if you're somewhere in between, but if you're somewhere near a historical extreme, very low or very high, it tends to have an inverse correlation with stock prices, meaning that if you look at investor confidence or consumer confidence or whatever, when you're really near those historical extremes, then what you expect to happen is the opposite of what winds up happening. voice-verified

The market tends to do poorly. voice-verified

When you're really panicking, sort of a March 2009-type moment, which is a multi-decade low in terms of confidence, people thought that we were going to have another Great Depression, basically. voice-verified

Then the returns in the next 12 months actually turned out to be fantastic, which is one reason that people are such poor investors. voice-verified

We kind of zig when we should zag. voice-verified

That's not to say you should head for the hills today. voice-verified

We could hit 3% next month, 2.9%. voice-verified

We've been as low as I think at the bottom of the lowest savings rate during the housing boom was below 2%. voice-verified

So you can briefly have extremely low rates of saving. voice-verified

But to think people then were spending the equity in their houses, you can't really do that today. voice-verified

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