Spencer Jakab

speaker

249 appearances 4 recordings 3 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 30 Jun

Spencer Jakab’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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The Compound and Friends · Steroid Era With Spencer Jakab, the F***’s Going on With Strategy?, Margin Debt · 30 Jun 2026 podcast

The kind of thing that you see coming out of a crisis, not the thing you see year six of an expansion.

Net margins were the highest they ever have been, 14.8% for the S&P 500.

And that actually does not include these gains.

So that's on an operating basis.

And it's likely to surpass that during the second quarter, which is great.

I mean, you can look at that as glass half full or glass half empty.

I'm a pessimist.

So I find it a bit alarming because, you know, you're valuing the market on these.

And people are saying, well, stock market's not that expensive based on that.

I don't want to air the Wall Street Journal's dirty laundry.

It's not.

It's just two interpretations of the same thing.

But there was a news article that appeared the same day based on the same numbers, not the extraordinary numbers on Anthropic and things like that, but just that 14.8%.

And I'll just read the headline to you.

Why Wall Street bulls aren't worried about sky-high stock prices.

So I am worried about sky-high stock prices.

I think that

Once you strip out all these abnormal things, the stock market's pretty expensive.

And margins are unlikely to stay this high for that long.

But forecasts for the rest of this year and the next couple of years call for them to go even higher, which would be pretty unusual.

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