Stephanie Roth
speaker
365 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 15 Jul
Stephanie Roth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
There was real concern that AI was going to take over the labor force and we were going to get a big rise in the unemployment rate.
And it didn't pan out that way, and I don't think it necessarily will.
I think the way it will pan out is people will gradually become more productive.
Perhaps some job openings won't get filled because they realize AI can maybe do some of that work.
And then new jobs will be created as a result, and it will just result in overall a better economy, better labor force, one where it's more productive, unit labor costs come down, or sort of the costs associated with production, and that's where you get further disinflationary trends.
Yeah, our thought is that inflation was going to peak around this time of year.
Then you're going to have a bit of a slowdown in the summer, a couple of things happening.
Tariff-related inflation is coming down.
The AI-related inflation will probably start to cool.
And then even if gasoline prices pick up a little bit from here, the Iran war-related inflation is also going to cool too.
So today's CPI data came in much softer than anyone expected.
It came in at flat.
Forecasts were all looking for 0.2 or above.
The Fed was getting ready to potentially hike in July as a result, and that's nearly off the table.
So the picture looks a lot better than where it's been.
It's not good, but it's looking a lot better than where it's been.
It shows up in the data.
If you look at core goods, they were running over 2% year over year.
Typically, we have core goods deflation, disinflation.
So we measure that it was adding 50, 60, 70 basis points on inflation, but that's starting to peak because we're now past Liberation Day.
Showing 1–20 of 365 · page 1 of 19
Next →