Stephanie Roth

speaker

365 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 15 Jul

Stephanie Roth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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So the only thing this year that could get them to cut is because they see weakening in the labor market.

Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting point of view.

I think there's a scenario where you can get the cuts because of AI-related disinflation and positive trends.

I just don't think it can be this year, given we're sitting here in July.

Inflation is still running, depending on which measure, somewhere around 3% on core, which is pretty far from their target.

It's 100 basis points, if not a little bit more on core PCE.

It's not going to get down to their target this year.

No.

And Warsh, they could eventually.

But Warsh specifically said, and I agree with this, you know, basically we're not changing our target until we're back to our target.

That would be.

Because you know what would happen in that scenario?

Going back to your comment earlier about inflation expectations or people's view about inflation into the future.

If people think inflation is going to pick up in the future, they tend to buy a lot today.

Of course.

And that makes inflation even worse.

So they need to be really careful about inflation expectations and keeping those anchored.

And if they change the inflation target in the middle of the game,

Like that's going to be a problem for us.

I mean, I guess I would take like 50 basis points lower on your range.

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