Stephen Kotkin

They can give dual-use technology.

They can give them missiles.

They can give them anti-missile defense.

They can never give them political legitimacy.

And that's the vulnerability, which is why Iran is on the precipice now

Because the regime is illegitimate and the regime knows that it's illegitimate in the eyes of the people.

That's why they have gigantic repressive apparatuses.

Because people talk about a bargain.

The Chinese made a bargain.

where the Russians made a bargain.

The people gave up their freedom, and the regime provides a higher standard of living.

So there's this bargain.

There is no bargain, because if the regime fails to raise the standard of living, the people can't sue them in court.

They can't say, oh, you know, you didn't live up to your end of the bargain.

We gave away our freedom, but you didn't deliver on your part of the bargain, so the deal's over.

You're out of power now because you didn't live up to your bargain.

Instead, they repress.

They bring out the batons.

They bring out the water cannon.

They bring out the disappearances where people are arrested, and they're not even arrested in cause.