Stephen Koukoulas
speaker
2,355 appearances
24 recordings
2 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 20 Sep
Stephen Koukoulas’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 24 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 6.
Appearances
wage rises that are linked to a productivity improvement are not inflationary because the business is getting more output per unit of input.
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So they can afford to pay you and me an extra few dollars to uh to allow for that productivity improvement.
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Okay.
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The other big one
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week?
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Uh we've since the start of the year, the the monthly volatility in the labor market numbers is extreme.
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And in fact, the ABS Bureau of Statistics acknowledged that with the most recent uh number where we saw 76,000 jobs created.
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They said that part of that
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was probably due to uh a change in the sample, 'cause it's a s sample of households, how they calculate employment and unemployment.
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And as the sample rotates, they get different cohorts going in and out of the sample to measure the labor market.
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So we had this incredible 74, 76,000 increase in jobs, and unemployment rate was steady.
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Normally, when you get 76,000 jobs created, the unemployment rate falls.
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So there's quirks in the monthly numbers.
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With that big caveat for us economists who are probably going to get this forecast wrong, we're we're probably going to see, or the market's sort of banking on a more modest increase in employment, around that 15,000.
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Okay.
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The unemployment rate to be steady to maybe
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Up one tick from 4.4 to 4.5.
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And remembering at the end of 2025, the unemployment rate was 4.0%.
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So it's probably up about half a percentage point in the last you know six to nine months.
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Okay.
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Showing 601–620 of 2,355 · page 31 of 118
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