Steve Ziliak
speaker
34 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2011
last heard Apr 2011
Steve Ziliak’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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One reason I do not like the test of statistical significance is that it doesn't tell you what you want.
What you want to know is the probability of your hypothesis being true, given the available evidence.
That would be very, very useful.
For example, when you're taking a pain relief pill, you'd like to know the probability of the benefits and costs of taking that medicine when that effect is actually there.
The test of statistical significance does not give us that information.
It reverses the problem entirely and says the following.
What is the probability of seeing the data given that there's no difference between the two medicines that we're examining?
There might well be a difference.
And you can see, secondly, there's a major problem with the test of significance is that it does not adequately deal with reasonable human beliefs about the odds of events and the consequences of following or not following the available and knowable odds.
The Supreme Court decided unanimously that statistical significance is neither necessary nor sufficient for proving a commercial, scientific,
medical or adverse effect result.
Well, the argument seemed to be mainly about whether or not the nasal form of Zycam cold remedy medicine was highly correlated with or was it causing a permanent loss of smell among the users.
It's called anosmia.
Starting in 1999, a doctor initiated reports by telling Matrix Initiatives that a cluster of my patients can no longer smell, and they're all taking Zycam.
And he warned the company that there were known studies showing that zinc glutamate, the active ingredient, could cause loss of smell.
Matrix was doing what eight or nine of every ten scientists using the test of statistical significance does.
And what they said is that the adverse effects that were discovered in double-blind, placebo-controlled,
randomized trials were not statistically significant at the 5% level, and they said therefore that it was correct under the 1934 Securities Exchange Law not to disclose that information.
Absolutely.
Put it this way.
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