Sudeep Reddy

There are signs, like you're standing on that piece of glass and you see the tiny cracks in the corners of it, but it hasn't actually hit in a big way.

There are delinquencies in credit cards, delinquencies in auto loans.

Lower-end consumers are very clearly being hit harder, obviously because of gas prices in particular.

There are just some signs here that are not good if they were to continue.

We still have this looming question over whether these gas prices being so high are short-term effects or are they more durable.

If this goes on, we used to think, oh, well, this is only going to be a few weeks, maybe a few months.

Well, we're at a few months now, and you can actually see it starting to hurt.

I just didn't think it was going to show up at numbers that look like they were 20 years ago during the financial crisis.

Some of these numbers are bad.

Yet, yet, jobless claims are very low.

We are in a low-firing economy.

Unemployment rate is not bad right now.

So the overall picture is one of stability.

But the cracks are there, and we've got to pay attention to them.

They need to be able to look into the future several months down the line.

Like, look, six years ago, they all joked about having to become virus experts.

with the pandemic.

That is the key to figuring out where the path was.

Now they're trying to become, they have to become straight-up Hormuz experts to figure out what is actually going to happen in the coming months in the Middle East and what kind of problems will mount and worsen for them along those lines.

It's not a great picture.