Sébastien Page
speaker
82 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2023
last heard Jan 2023
Sébastien Page’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I mean, we're all obsessed with the Fed, too much in my opinion.
But 2023 should be a year where...
There's less sensitivity to inflation, as we said earlier, and to the Fed relative to 2022.
It's not like those risks are going away.
The important thing, JR, is that markets expect a pivot from the Fed in the second half of 2023.
If you look at how Fed fund futures are pricing interest rates,
I'm not really.
I think we get to five and we probably stay there for a while.
And the reason is that unemployment data is just still so strong.
The bottom line is we are unwinding massive COVID distortions in the economy.
And that includes a remarkably strong employment picture.
It includes 10 million still unfilled job openings.
You kind of have to look at the difference between tech stocks that are highly speculative, that don't generate profits right now, that are more like story type of stocks, and then the mega cap techs.
It's almost like two different sectors within tech.
Generally speaking, I think that we continue to be in an environment for a while where cash flows matter because of interest rate uncertainty.
And if you're a company that has, you know, you're promising to make a lot of profits, but like a decade from now, you're super innovative, right?
Well, the way markets work is once you start discounting those profits really far into the future, the value of the company goes down.
So you need balance between value and growth, but you still need to have perhaps a quality bias in both.
If I'm an investor looking to rethink how I look at growth stocks and other alternatives, I think bonds and high yield bonds included as part of a diversified portfolio look interesting for 2023.
And then one more thing I'll say to you are like small caps, quality small caps, like the S&P 600 types of small caps.
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