Tamay Besiroglu

But like I would just like the generic prediction that you should expect variance and some countries do better than others.

I think that's much easier to predict than like the specific countries that end up doing better.

Producing this stuff takes a lot of infrastructure build-up.

It's not...

Learning curves are about this, right?

Fundamentally.

What has driven the increase in the efficiency of solar panels over the past 20, 30 years?

You might get better materials.

For example, the...

The fact that aluminum becomes something that's... For example, the fact that smelting processes got a lot better towards the end of the 19th century, so it became a lot easier to work with metal.

Maybe that...

was a crucial reason why aircraft technology later became more popular.

So it's not like someone came up with the idea of, oh, you can just use something that just has wings and has a lot of thrust, and then that might be able to fly.

That basic idea is not that difficult.

But then, well, how do you make it actually a viable thing?

That's right.

It's just hard, I think.

It's just hard to even... Suppose you wanted to write a history of this, right?

Like, you want to write a history of how was the, like, light bulb developed or something.

It's just really hard because to understand why specific things happen at specific times, you probably need to understand so much about the economic conditions of the time.