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Tamay Besiroglu

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
878 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

It's always been the case.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But I think when it is sufficiently functional for that to be suppressed, they are capable of suppressing it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

No, I'm not under-emphasizing that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I think, like, there are... What I would say is there are certain things that are, like, path-dependent in history, such that if someone had done something different, like something had gone differently a thousand years ago, then today, in some respects, would look different.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I think, for example, which languages are spoken across which boundaries or, like, which religions people have or, like, which...

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Like those kinds of โ€“ or fashion maybe to some extent, though not entirely.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Like those things are more path-dependent.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But then there are things that are not as path-dependent.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

So, for example, if some empire โ€“ like if the Mongols had been more successful and like they somehow โ€“

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I don't know how realistic it is, but they became very authoritarian and had slavery everywhere.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Would that have actually led to slavery being a much more enduring institution a thousand years later?

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

That seems not true to me.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

The forces that led to the end of slavery seemed like they were not...

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

they were not contingent forces.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

They seem like deeper forces than that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

And if you're saying, well, if we like if we aligned us today to some bad set of values, then that could affect the future in some ways which are more fragile.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

That seems plausible.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But I'm not sure how much of the things you care about the future and how much โ€“ the ways in which you expect the future to get worse, you actually have a lot of leverage on at the present moment.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

No, I don't think you should give up.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

It's more like it's hard to anticipate the consequences of your actions in the very distant future.