Taylor Nugent

speaker

7,962 appearances 80 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 27 Aug

Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · War on hold, RBA on the move · 5 May 2026 podcast

And I think the the clear message from uh the uh Michelle Bullock, Governor Michelle Bullock's press conference as well was that, you know, they are uh you know pretty focused on on you know inflation and and the challenges on the inflation side of the mandate. voice-verified

And it does seem like at the moment there's a a clear preference to prioritize that that price stability side of of the mandate. voice-verified

Um and so, you know voice-verified

while we look at the the outcome in in May, it doesn't, you know, you've seen uh market pricing, fairly, fairly little reaction, still pricing uh an RBA um terminal rate somewhere near four point seven percent, three year yields actually um modestly lower um all all said and done. voice-verified

I think that just goes to show yeah there was quite you know the an RBA tightening cycle was pretty well priced go going into it. voice-verified

So it was going to be difficult for the RBA to kind of outhawk. voice-verified

the the market in a sense. voice-verified

Um but certainly for us, we think that, you know, the combination of the the communication there and you know the the set of forecast updates that we can we can talk through it and um in a moment as well, you know, you know, really, you know, make the make another increase from the RBA, you know, uh more likely than not. voice-verified

Mm. voice-verified

And so NAB has has changed our view to to look for another increase in in June to four point six percent on the policy voice-verified

Yeah, that that's the concern. voice-verified

And I think it's that that kind of speed and and breadth of of pass through and, you know, certainly um the RBA is anticipating that there will be um, you know, pass through quite quickly, both because of the magnitude of of the shock, but also kind of those those pre existing conditions in in Australia of inflation that was a bit too high and and domestic demand a a bit too strong and labor markets, you know, a little a little bit too tight, um, all kind of feeding voice-verified

into that um that ability of of firms to kind of pass these these costs on. voice-verified

And so you know I think when you look at their inflation forecast, they have uh headline inflation peaking around four point eight percent. voice-verified

That's about 0.6 percentage points higher than than their their previous forecasts and they have uh trim mean inflation peaking at at 3.8% in in the second quarter. voice-verified

So that's anticipating you know pretty pretty full voice-verified

uh pass through even to those underlying measures, you know, in part because of the the kind of you know the the breadth and the the nature of the shock and and certainly helped by those those pre-existing um conditions that I talked about. voice-verified

Certainly we are you know not too dissimilar in terms of the you know the inflation challenge in in the short term, um actually seeing the risk marginally to the upside of that um that Q2 trim mean in inflation forecast in voice-verified

Their baseline. voice-verified

I think when you look at the forecast revisions, though, another thing that that stands out is that, you know, while inflation was revised notably higher, GDP growth was revised lower, no surprises there. voice-verified

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