Thomas Laffont

speaker

504 appearances 2 recordings 2 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 4 Jun

Thomas Laffont’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave, 2026's Unicorn Economy, and the 10X Paradox · 4 Jun 2026 podcast

by 2028.

Now these hyperscalers aren't sitting still, they're seeing the disruption, but actually they're doing more than seeing it, they're actually funding it.

Because if you look at the ChatGPT moment that we know happened, look at how much these companies, the largest in the world, have invested in enabling and creating this change.

Truly unprecedented.

So I know SpaceX, a lot of people are going to talk about SpaceX, so I thought I would share a little bit of how we as investors think about SpaceX so that as you think about whether it's a stock that you want to own or you just want to seem smart at a cocktail party, you can benefit from our knowledge.

The first thing that pops out when we look and study SpaceX is that the number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches.

Which intuitively makes sense.

If your business is the launch business, the more you launch, the higher your value should be.

So I think we see that in the data.

But there's another fundamentally different ratio that I want to point you to, which is, what if we took the valuation, we divided it by the number of launches, what would that look like?

Well, you can see it was kind of in a fixed range for a while, and then it really started to move up.

And we believe that markets are rational, and so we started thinking, well, why is it that the market is valuing SpaceX higher on a per-launch basis when it's launching more than when it was just starting out?

And my fundamental view, and we'll kind of call this our code-true framework, is that the reason is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch.

So in phase one, which we call pre-constellation, you're just trying your rockets, and we know rockets are hard, and maybe you have a few government customers, and that's a one-time revenue business, and it's unpredictable.

Then you get into your initial ramp, and now you might have one constellation.

So why is a constellation important?

Well, it's an end market, and it's a recurring revenue business.

The more satellites you put up, the more subscribers you have, the more revenue, etc.

Now you can move from ramp into scale.

Now you don't just have one constellation, you have multiple constellations.

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