Tim Lawless

speaker

584 appearances 2 recordings 2 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 8 Jul

Tim Lawless’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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FEAR & GREED | Business News · Q+A: Has Australia’s housing downturn finally arrived? · 1 Jun 2026 podcast

And it's fair to say that the budget being handed down is going to be a big disincentive for investment.

I don't think we'll see a lot of investors deflecting to new housing.

There'll be some of that, but I think a lot of investors will see the new housing market is riskier in the sense that it doesn't have the same scarcity of supply as established.

There's a price premium for buying new.

And of course, there's some risk around the resale market because a home is only new once.

I wonder if there's going to be a shallower resale market where investors buying somebody's new home

they don't get the same tax benefits or treatment or depreciation benefits for that matter either.

So I think it's fair to say that investors are probably going to move from being overrepresented in the market to underrepresented, falling well below that 33%, maybe even as low as, say, 20% to 25%, which is where investors were through, say, the macro potential and

the Royal Commission investors were down around that sort of mid 20% mark in terms of their participation rates.

Well, rents are a bit disconnected from the value cycle, and rents tend to move based on vacancy rates.

So the bad news for renters is vacancy rates went lower in May.

They fell to 1.5%, which is an equal record low.

And we are seeing this reacceleration in rental growth at the moment as well.

So rents were up nearly 6% nationally over the past 12 months, at a time when rental affordability has never been this stretched either.

So there is a chance here that we'll see rental markets remaining very tight, although I'm not convinced we'll see a further re-acceleration in rents just simply because renters don't have a huge amount of elasticity in how much they can pay.

I think renters are getting close to a ceiling on their ability to pay more rent, which probably implies some structural changes to rental supply, larger group households, more multi-generational households.

that type of thing, rather than a spectacular rise in rental costs.

Well, yeah, I think that's probably a fair assessment, Sean.

And the market, I mean, the market's cyclical.

So we should expect that every growth cycle will be followed by a down phase.

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