Toby Howell

Delinquency rates aren't jacking up anywhere.

So it was this kind of awkward trying to straddle the line between saying like, hey, we know there's a ton of risks everywhere else.

But right now, from what we're seeing, or at least what we were seeing over the past quarter,

things are looking pretty hunky-dory.

The curmudgeon in the room, though, is the International Monetary Fund, the

the IMF.

I know, it's always the dang IMF.

They are basically saying that the world economy has been upended by the Middle East.

They are slashing their growth forecast in their latest World Economic Outlook report.

The 2026 forecast is now for the global economy to grow 3.1%.

That is down from 3.4% in 2025.

So basically, they're saying it

The most severe case is that the energy markets continue to be in turmoil.

Global growth drags all the way down to 2%.

Inflation jumps up to 6%.

So they are talking about the downside risks much bigger than a lot of other people are kind of forecasting.

So even the US economy, which we've just talked about, they say that we're not immune to the energy crisis.

So

There are conflicting signals everywhere you look.

You can look at bank earnings and see a rosier picture of the economy, or you can look at the IMF, who is not pumped about what they're seeing.