Toby Ord

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1,415 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 6 Aug

Toby Ord’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #250 – Toby Ord on where AGI timelines go wrong · 6 Aug 2026 podcast

And so that is more likely to lead to a kind of winner-take-all scenario, which encourages racing, and also to lead to a final outcome where there's much more concentration of power towards whoever gets there first.

So I think that's like a fourth reason.

There's probably more.

And I'm hoping that people will...

take up this idea of like, you know, okay, actually, let's try to think about this and try to work out what are the different sources of danger?

And then, you know, what kind of remedies would be required to deal with them?

How much danger are they producing?

And so on.

Yeah, I think at least in the long run, I think it is quite credible.

In the short run, so could there be a deal between China and the US on recursive self-improvement and how would that work?

I haven't thought about that one too much, but that could be a bit harder.

So it does depend on the nature of the deal.

But if the idea was something more like a moratorium on superintelligence,

that we're willing to go a certain distance into the world of AI and AGI, but that systems that completely dwarf the intellectual powers of humans are off limits.

I think that such a deal would be very much in the interest of both countries from the perspective of AI risk, that once they realize that there's a very credible chance that by allowing these things, that they will be killed and that their children will be killed and they're

Their whole culture is kind of erased from the earth, perhaps.

If that is what the evidence suggests, then if people ultimately wake up to the evidence, I think it's just in their own interests, generally, if they can, to negotiate some way to not go there.

Yeah, well, I think that it's pretty likely that they will be.

So at the moment, it's only people who are looking out quite far ahead who can see some of these possibilities clearly and are willing to kind of trust some of this extrapolation about what's going on.

And that's only a subset of people.

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