Toby Ord

The Overton window for AI regulation will be in a very different place.

As may be the geopolitical order.

The last nine years has seen the invasion of Ukraine, the increasing isolation of the US and a global pandemic.

Another nine years could see a similar amount of change.

And if we haven't played our cards right, those of us working on avoiding catastrophic risks from AI may have also lost a lot of power, with our ideas about AI risk being seen as discredited since so many years have passed without the truly transformative effects we were talking about.

In short, the longer the timelines the more different things will be, both in some systematic, predictable ways, and just from random diffusion and chaos.

So taking longer timelines seriously means.

Being more open to approaches that wouldn't work in the world as it is today.

Being less excited about approaches that are tailored to specifics of the today's world.

Being less happy to compromise your values to appeal to those currently in control of companies and governments.

Being less willing to say things that will make people feel our position is discredited if we end up in a long timeline world.

And spending less time following the daily news about what has just happened in AI or who is ahead.

Subheading.

Long-term actions.

There are many kinds of things people can work on that can pay off handsomely, but only after a number of years.

Things like founding and nurturing a new research field, founding an organization or company, building a movement or community, writing a book, foundational research, completing a PhD, a major career change.

climbing the ladder in a large organization or government, training promising students in AI safety or AI governance.

If you just consider your impact during the next three years, most of these will be beaten by other shorter-term options.

But as the years climb, longer-term options can have very high value.

They aren't always best, but for the right people or the right opportunities, they can be extremely impactful.