Toby Ord

We need to take more seriously the possibility that the world will look very different at that time, which should broaden our own Overton windows about what kinds of plans could succeed.

and we shouldn't be ruling out all actions which take a long time to pay off.

Even if they wouldn't help in short timelines worlds, some actions more than make up for this with substantial impacts if timelines are long.

Funders, career advisors, and movement builders should be thinking about this with regards to how we act as a community.

to the shape of the whole portfolio of work aimed at effectively improving the world.

And each of us should be reflecting on what this deeply uncertain timing means for planning our own contributions over the years to come.

This article was narrated by Type 3 Audio for Less Wrong.

It was published on March 19, 2026.

Images are included in the podcast episode description.